Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
