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It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.