Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
